Driving the news: Victor Davis Hanson says Iran is 'planning' an October surprise before the midterms, with potential moves ranging from unrest in the streets to missile attacks in the Gulf.
Hanson says the regime's strategy has been to 'delay, negotiate, attack,' and argues the aim is to raise oil prices and affect the election calendar. He says Iran is trying to time events around the weeks between Oct. 15 and Nov. 3.
He also says the situation is unusually opaque because there are no Western journalists allowed into Iran, no U.S. ground troops, and no embedded reporters. Hanson adds that Iranians who call people in the West are 'hunted down.'
By the numbers, he says Iran has 'no fuel, gasoline, or diesel,' that 'gas lines are three to four miles long,' and that 'food is scarce.' He says inflation is 'rampant' and conditions are deteriorating.
Hanson says one possible surprise would be a wave of popular unrest, while another would be Kurdish activity if conditions worsen. He also says Donald Trump could still respond with a negotiation, retaliation, or strikes on dual-use targets and command-and-control sites.
The bottom line: Hanson sees a regime looking for leverage, not peace. For Washington, the risk is simple: a foreign crisis timed to hit energy markets, the Gulf, and the political calendar at once.