Driving the news: Victor Davis Hanson said Iran is misreading the political calendar as the midterms approach. He said Tehran expects Trump to soften on the war if gas prices rise and Democrats grow louder.
Hanson said the pressure is already visible. He pointed to Iran’s complaints about U.S. strikes on 'dual-use' targets, its call for talks, and what he described as signs of strain inside Iran, including protests by Iranian Kurds and pressure on Hamas, Hezbollah and the Houthis.
He also said Iran is losing '$500 million a day in economic activity' because it cannot easily import goods or sell oil. In his view, that is helping explain why Tehran is desperate to change the battlefield and the politics around it.
Trump, Hanson said, has made clear that Iran is 'desperate for talks.' Hanson argued that does not mean a bargain is coming. He said, 'That’s not going to happen. There’s no chance that’s going to happen.'
Why it matters: Hanson’s argument is less about a single strike than about leverage. He is saying the real contest is whether economic pressure and military pressure can keep Iran boxed in before the election season changes Washington’s math.
The bottom line: The midterms may shape the debate in Washington, but Hanson says they will not rescue Tehran. If his read is right, Iran is facing a squeeze, not a reset.