Control of Congress will be decided over the next seven weeks, and Republicans are already being warned about their own coalition.
Pollster Brent Buchanan said Cygnal data shows about 45% of Republicans identify as Trump Republicans, while a majority call themselves traditional Republicans. He said 77% of Trump Republicans are excited about the election, compared with 51% of traditional Republicans.
Buchanan said those voters want to hear how Republicans are addressing affordability, citing the high cost of health insurance, auto and homeowners insurance, property taxes, and gas prices. He also said his company is absorbing a 12.6% increase in health coverage this year.
He was blunt about the president’s proposed $5,000 dividend: 'Americans are actually focused on the money going out the door, not the money coming in the door.'
Victor Davis Hanson argued the party is facing a communication problem, not a governing problem. He pointed to inflation averaging 5.2% during the Biden administration, and said it is substantially lower now. He also cited deregulation, record foreign investment, energy production, a closed border, the lowest crime rate in decades, and the latest jobs report.
Hanson put the House at a 70-30 proposition against Republicans and called the Senate a coin flip. He said better communication and a sharper contrast with Democrats' socialist turn could move those odds.
Why it matters: Republicans are learning that policy wins do not automatically produce votes. If traditional voters stay home, control of Congress can flip on turnout, not ideology.
The bottom line: This is a reminder that in American politics, the message is part of the product. If the party cannot sell affordability and results, the administrative state and the opposition will define the race instead.